While the Republican presidential nominee is clearly slanted to be Senator John McCain of Arizona, the race for the Democratic presidential nominee has been a close and controversial one from the start. In addition, for the first time in United States history, the Democratic nominee is either going to be a woman or a minority.
Coming up on May 6 North Carolina will have its Democratic primary for the pending November presidential election. According to Joel Ford, chair of the Mecklenburg Democrat party, North Carolina has had its primary on May 6 for as far back as most can remember.
In the past elections, this late primary date has always meant that the Democrat candidate had been clearly selected by the time the primary rolled around to North Carolina. However, this year the tides have changed and with the competitive campaigning between Senator Hillary Clinton and Senator Barack Obama, North Carolina's primary will have a big say in which candidate will ultimately win the Democrat nomination.
On the expectation of a large voter turnout, Ford said, "Absolutely. Voter registration has been occurring at a record pace. Turnout in other states has skyrocketed relative to the equivalent primaries four years ago. There is real excitement around our Democratic candidates, and there is a high level of frustration with the current administration." Ford added that at the presidential level, negative campaigning has not hurt either party but incidentally, positive campaigning would take a candidate farther than negative campaigning.
"Negative campaigning always hurts both the candidate to uses it and the one who has it used against him or her," said Dr. Ted Arrington, a Political Science professor at UNC Charlotte.
"The latest political science literature indicates that negative ads are no more effective than positive ones," Arrington said. "Yes, I know that is not the common wisdom, but it is what the scientific studies show. The negative ads in the Democratic primaries this year have been very tame. I do not think anything in any of the ads will hurt either of them in November."
According to Arrington, North Carolina will play a large role in choosing the Democratic candidate for President. In order for Clinton to boost her chances at getting the nomination she will have to do well in North Carolina to gain enough delegates to give her the votes she needs to become the nominee.
Arrington continued saying that Clintons biggest concern will be getting white voters backing her at the primary and that while it is unlikely that Clinton would win the state of North Carolina, she needs to beat Obama in white votes by a minimum of two-to-one. Furthermore, even if Obama were to win North Carolina it is of no real concern. "He is expected to win and this game is really about expectation." As we can see here, the competition will remain tight up until the last primary in June. A great feeling for all those registered Democrat voters in North Carolina is that though our primary comes as one of the last in line, this year's votes will hold more weight in the nomination decision than they have in the past.
